Friday, March 28, 2008

Calling Out the Other Team

I figured a sports analogy is appropriate because it is March Madness. Most players have been coached to never call out the other team. It usually just makes the headlines and motivates the other team with bulletin board fodder. However, sometimes it also motivates your own team and sometimes it is just responding to untruths.

That scenario comes to mind when the Bank of America Apple analyst and a few others started to publicly question AAPL's goal of selling 10 million iPhones this year. I thought they looked pretty dumb when Steve Jobs and Apple's CFO both then came out and politely refuted the analyst's concerns. In corporate speak, they "called out" the "Doubting Thomas" analysts and told the world that 10 million iPhones "will happen". The stock moved down on the analyst's concerns, but never really responded to the company's call out.

That is why I am enjoying what came off the wires at lunch today:

12:01 (Dow Jones) Banc of America's channel checks point to Apple (AAPL) beginning significant production of 3G versions of iPhone in June -- 3G being crucial for international sales. Since this likely implies a launch announcement in calendar 2Q, firm says its estimate of 8M iPhones sold this year is starting to look too conservative. BofA now believes AAPL will build more than 11M iPhones by end of CY 3Q. For every 1M extra iPhones sold, BofA says implied upside is up to $400M in revenue and 12c EPS. AAPL's stated goal is to sell 10M by year end. Shares up 2.8% at $144.18. (EBW)

Now don't they look stupid? AAPL is up and still fighting to close the gap and continue what could be the mother of all cup-with-handle patterns.

P.S. My GS calls are looking in trouble. I may add to the position with a pair trade with LEH. I may also cover and buy again lower. I made a huge profit on the run-up, but should have sold it all instead of keeping 30%. I am playing with the house's money, but I still hate giving it all back.

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