I noted some incorrect math in my previous post that I wanted to correct. William Trent in his blog correctly used market cap to analyze what investors think of the deal. His numbers are different than mine, but the outcome is the same (it may be because of what time we are posting this).
Assuming Friday's closing price for ANST of $23.42, provides a previous market cap valuation of $546 million. Friday's ANSS closing price of $37.92 provides a previous market cap for ANSS of $2.97 billion for a combined total of $3.52 billion for the two companies. This compares to a new market cap of $3.09 billion for the "new" ANSS at today's close, after including the 11.1 million new shares dilution as proposed by the company.
It is fairly evident that the market has clipped about $400 + million in market cap off the combined value. That is not positive, but I still expect good things from this management team. I am also willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, given their track record and what this says about the company's perceived health given the economy.
On another topic, my remaining GS calls are looking a little long in the teeth. Any catalyst for the trade is gone and the stock is trading with the sector. Not a good position for an options position and there are many other ways to play the sector with less risk. I am looking to exit the position on a good upside day or to cut losses if the price action looks severe this week.
Monday, March 31, 2008
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