Thursday, January 10, 2008

Trading without Trends

As the image says (it is hard to read), "There's something to be said for true losers. They're consistent to a degree that would suggest luck has little to do with it." I found myself getting too cute this morning. If you are trading you need a thesis and a trend.

My thesis for AAPL is MacWorld and that the stock will jump up on good news, so "stay long dummy" needs to be the theme for a couple more days. My fear was that the market would dive again today, so I dumbly saw the 10 AM rally as an opportunity to collar my AAPL calls. I bought Jan puts to place a collar in case this was another triple digit down day, but the price action in Apple was telling me different and I covered. Not a real costly mistake, but one that shouldn't have happened. You need a trend to trade, otherwise it is a complete guess.

Still basically with the same stuff this morning. I peeled off a few more GRMN calls this morning when the stock hit $79.00, and bought and then covered puts for a small, but dumb, loss.

Unless BB delivers bad news at 1 pm, the market seems to want to move up despite the retail sales silliness this morning. Of course, that is just a complete guess because intraday TA is telling me nothing at the moment.

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