Happy New Year

Happy New Year everyone! I thought that I would post what I am thinking about the stocks I watch and own. Here are my plays going into 2008:

Long Plays for 2008

Apple (AAPL). Up more than 130% in 2007, AAPL may potentially repeat their 2007 performance in 2008. The Law of Large Numbers makes it more difficult, but the new technology and new markets that they are entering and being successful with is exciting. Their brand, the buzz, and their growth rate will continue to command a 50 PE throughout 2008. I am currently trading calls with AAPL short term, trying to take advantage of a potential January lift in their stock price prior to MacWorld. On any market correction, I plan to reenter AAPL long for 2008. MacWorld on January 15th will give us a glimpse about where the company is planning to go.

Bolt Technology (BTJ). A marine seismic equipment manufacturer for Oil and Gas companies, BTJ is a microcap that should enjoy a banner year in 2008. Bolt got ahead of itself last summer and is just now getting its feet underneath itself again. Investor’s Business Daily pumped the stock price and momentum investors piled in early last year, however, the IBD noise should be behind us and earnings should continue to accelerate as oil becomes harder and harder to find. I am currently long BTJ and expect the stock to be above $50 by early summer.

Ansys (ANSS). A maker of engineering simulation software, this company has almost doubled in 2007, but 2008 may be a better year. This company has outstanding growth and outperformed quarterly on a consistent basis. I am currently long ANSS as an investment and will add on any major dip. This is not a rocket stock, but a steady performer - worthy of some IRA investment capital as well.

Garmin (GRMN). Garmin finally brought GPS technology in force to the consumer market in 2007. Last year, the company proved to the world that personal navigation devices are a “must have” component and just about every device that the company produced was bought. I expect 2008 to be another blockbuster year and plan to be long GRMN on any major pull back. The Tom Tom price war on devices in late 2007 and the bidding war to buy TeleAtlas proved too much for the stock this fall and it is well off its high set in late October. I expect the stock to move lower on a “sell-the-news” type scenario after Q4 earnings are announced and I think that I may be able to pick up GRMN cheaper in March.

Precision CastParts (PCP). PCP has been a double for me over the last 13 months and 2008 may be another good year for the company as the Aerospace cycle continues to roar. I am currently long PCP, but looking to significantly lighten up as soon as later this week. My core position went “long term” at the end of November and I have been holding off in selling the stock for tax reasons. The AMT is just too painful and my tax bill didn’t need any more Capital Gains. While I really don’t often worry about taxes, I was confident that the stock would maintain its pricing power and I still expect PCP to hit $155-160 fairly soon. For 2008, however, I expect PCP stock appreciation to slow down and I plan to trade the stock instead of investing in it, buying PCP options on major dips. The company has solid management and they may come up with a way to grow further (so I don’t want to walk away) but my money will start to move elsewhere towards returns that are better.

Rochester Medical (ROCM). I have posted a number of reasons why I think that ROCM may be a stock that will be a rocket once they get noticed. This play is a speculative investment, but I believe that the stock’s fair value is above $30 going forward. I expect some January effect price action from this stock this month. Hopefully, $13.00 is in sight in the next 30 days. The lawsuit, medicare changes, an increased sales force and the possibility of M&A makes this stock a potential big winner in 2008.

Sirona Dental (SIRO). This company has some amazing technology that is changing the way that dentists provide dental health analysis. It is a best of breed play in a defensive sector and I am very bullish about SIRO long term, but the company’s earnings are very lumpy and the stock is thinly traded, making it a good swing trade. I am a buyer of SIRO under $30 and a seller of the stock above $42. I wouldn’t chase this one. The stock keeps giving us a buy opportunity as they try to broaden their client base and consistently execute.

Aspen Bio-Pharma (APPY). A new purchase for me and something that will require a little more research. The company may have a major home run with an appendicitis blood test (a first of its kind) that will help doctors screen for this condition. The company is looking for final approval from the FDA and this test could become a staple requirement for every doctor that encounter patients with appendicitis-like symptoms. I am riding this stock until $12.00 and will then reassess.

Stocks to Watch for 2008

Goldman Sachs (GS). The smartest guys on Wall Street will eventually be a buy again. The short term, however, may be very painful. I plan to watch this stock through April with the potential of buying calls for a late summer and 2nd half of 2008 run. GS is traditionally a 2nd half stock, having their best earnings during the 2nd half of each year. The subprime mess affected this theory this year, but I expect it to work itself out in the next 4-6 months.

Under Armour (UA). This is a great company in a very tough neighborhood. The entire retail sector is under siege with the threat of a recession on investor’s minds and currently owning anything in the sector doesn’t make sense early this year. I plan to watch the sector and will enter UA when I start seeing some accumulation. The insider selling is another problem, but hopefully a hiccup in a long term run. Every six year old I see on the soccer field is wearing Under Armour gear. The company just needs to execute their growth strategy and manage their inventory - the buzz is definitely there.

Greatbatch (GB). 2008 may be the year for software, batteries and this company. GB has not executed well, but the stock is oversold and in a dead zone after poor earnings. I expect the stock to rebound later in the year and I plan to potentially trade the company technically. The chart is ugly, but no good news is currently priced into the stock. They just need to execute.

Stocks to Short for 2008

Titanium Metals (TIE). Titanium prices have fallen off as supply has come on line and I expect pricing weakness throughout the 1st half of 2008. I will be looking to short TIE, RTI and/or ATI at good entry points until the pricing situation changes for the better. They missed earning during Q3 and the stock moved more than 5% on the news. I am expecting the company to miss Q4 earnings as well and plan to buy puts prior to the announcement for a trade.

Amazon (AMZN). This is a hated stock with a huge short interest and it is for good reason – the multiple and expectations are unrealistic. This will be a play for me as a short when I believe the market may be in correction.