Wednesday, January 16, 2008

A Bridge Too Far

I love the equities market. I also love golf. I admit that I am addicted. Why? Because both are challenging, pure, and at times very, very humbling. As Bagger Vance said about golf in the movie, I have "lost my swing" in terms of trading this market at the moment.

I expected Intel to beat estimates. I expected the current low in the S&P to be held for the short term. I also expected AAPL to hold up better that it has. Well, three strikes and you are out. Today may very well be a new bottom from which to build a new base up after another 250 point decline, but I am afraid that any further losses to Apple below $165 will create a Bridge to Far to cross in the time left before expiration.

I am therefore selling my Feb185's on any strength this morning to roll over these funds to the Feb175 calls I currently own at a lower entry point. This huge loss is very humbling and frankly one of the worst trades I have made in years. Time to learn from it. This correction is definitely different than others that I seen before.

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