One trader's view on the stocks he follows and his economic perspective
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Added AAPL Feb165 Calls
Added back some AAPL Feb165 calls this afternoon and enjoyed a little bounce before the tape sold off again near close. Today felt like a intermediate bottom to me. The Bulls put up a fight on what should have been a big down day.
Also, the SPX was bottomed last week (and I erringly bought some UYG for a 6% loss. Niiice.) and may very well keep bottoming as hedge funds sell everything for cash to pay out to investor redemption notices ahead of any potential recession whether one is ever realized or not.
Just think of everything with a PE of 3 to 8! Perfectly fine quarterly EPSs and maybe even some growth here and there (maybe!) and the hedgies will still sell perfectly good stocks for cash.
Thanks for the comment, but I think that things may turn faster than folks realize. IBM, GE and even Intel did not have bad earnings. Sooner or later folks will realize that there are bargains.
I am an amateur investor that has been actively investing and trading in equities since 1994, trying to hold my own against my dad and some extended family members that are in the brokerage business. I am an engineer by training but have a passion for economics and history. I want to thank my lovely wife and two boys for allowing me the time for my "hobby".
I spend a lot of time researching a stock that I can easily understand. I am an engineer and have a fair amount of understanding of the technology, aerospace, materials, metals, and consumer and retail sectors.
I also attempt to use Technical Analysis to look for good entry and exit points for the stocks I follow. I would rather trade a stock where I understand the price action than take a tip on a momentum stock from someone who doesn't do the necessary research. That is my story and I am sticking with it.
I welcome your comments and hope you enjoy!
Market Sentiment
Market in Confirmed Rally
Sentiment Detail
4/20/08 (revised once a week)
The market (DJI) broke out of it's three month trading range to the upside on Friday. The Industrials have not closed higher since February 1st and the Transports have broken above all-time highs. This is something you like to see as indicators for a market going much higher. I expect the S&P and the COMPQ to also break above their ranges in the short term as well.
The market is not yet overbought, but a few days of backing and filling is warranted at this point. I intend to buy the dips and sell some into strength this week
2 comments:
Howdy Sneak,
Your "intermediate bottom" call reminded me of an NOV 07 post of mine that I recently ran across:
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=399&mn=30874&pt=msg&mid=3433566
Also, the SPX was bottomed last week (and I erringly bought some UYG for a 6% loss. Niiice.) and may very well keep bottoming as hedge funds sell everything for cash to pay out to investor redemption notices ahead of any potential recession whether one is ever realized or not.
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?submitted=true&intflavor=advanced&symb=SPX&origurl=%2Ftools%2Fquotes%2Fintchart.asp&time=10&freq=2&startdate=&enddate=&hiddenTrue=&comp=Enter+Symbol%28s%29%3A&compidx=aaaaa%7E0&compind=aaaaa%7E0&uf=0&ma=1&maval=20&lf=4&lf2=32&lf3=256&type=4&size=2&optstyle=1013
Just think of everything with a PE of 3 to 8!
Perfectly fine quarterly EPSs and maybe even some growth here and there (maybe!) and the hedgies will still sell perfectly good stocks for cash.
Fuzz
Hi Fuzz:
Thanks for the comment, but I think that things may turn faster than folks realize. IBM, GE and even Intel did not have bad earnings. Sooner or later folks will realize that there are bargains.
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