Starting Over

Renewal. A fresh year. Time to rethink things. That is what this time of the year is about - well almost. We aren't yet past Christmas and I am already thinking about how I "will do better next year". I guess that is the way that most investors think - eternally the optimist and always after unattainable wealth.

I just spend the last two days on a business trip, dying to be following the Santa's "helper" rally that was unfolding. I use the word "helper" because it is a little late, a little subdued, and a little uncertain. I am not trying to slam a 200-point "up" day, but what it means will still be debated into the new year.

For me, I really don't care. I am focused on the New Year.

I last left everyone mostly in cash. I admit that I lost discipline and nibbled again twice over the last few days (got to love a laptop with wireless!). Sorry that I didn't post, but I bought some AAPL calls on Wednesday and some PCP calls on Thursday. I look smart at the moment, but these two stocks have different futures in my opinion.

AAPL may continue to be the stock of 2008. With MacWorld and earnings coming up in January, we may be looking at new product (or add on) introductions and new earnings blow-outs. They seem to have everything going for them and only themselves to blame for execution issues. I plan to ride this stock further and will probably be exercising some calls in January.

With PCP, however, I am probably going to be unloading my stock and move towards trading the name. It is no longer a buy and hold stock as the aerospace sector cycle continues to get "long in the teeth". They have excellent management, and are great at adding companies to their portfolio and integrating them, but the money is going to get harder to make. Money managers look for slowing growth figures in a stock and then bail. PCP is slowing (in my opinion) and I am noticing that a number of money managers are taking profits. I will not be long behind them. I am just trying to ride the "boost" one more time and I am looking at $155 as a decent exit point.

By the way, that PCP money is probably going into ANSS. More this weekend.