A Dog's Take on the Market, Part 1

I just realized that I have a blog. Not really, but compared to a message board where everyone argues with whatever economic point one makes, I have the benefit of posting a few thoughts here periodically for a few friends that stop by from time to time without fear of retribution.

A lot of my focus over the last two months has really been on the stocks I own and the tactical moves I make from day to day. While that will continue (it is really my way of tracking what worked and didn't work), I also do plan on sharing a few thoughts about where the market is headed and what I think of certain economic "facts" that the traditional media incorrectly spouses.

I was on a plane tonight and looked at the Wall Street Journal and saw an article with a headline that said something like "Oil Headed Lower...." Excuse me, but when did this junior journalist become a commodities trader worth respecting? I didn't bother to read the article because I was so disgusted. I am not blaming the young "cub" reporter, but please, if we all could predict where a market was headed, we would all be rich.

Of course, the reporter probably took an anecdotal poll of traders to gauge what they thought of the market, but the smart money is not reading this trash - it biases an open mind to a market.

So where is the equities market going short term? Heck if I know. That doesn't mean that I'm not willing to invest or trade (I have a current net long position), but my view is that the market has now entered a trading range within the next phase of this correction. It may or may not take the next 3-4 weeks for the market to move out of this range. We are in an events-driven market and very few stocks are currently immune to the daily gyrations of fear and greed.

The daily and weekly index charts tell us nothing. It is all about "intraday" and the mood of the day on the floor. So we have the jobs report on Friday, the Fed Meeting next week, and then some thinly traded periods with the usual holiday mood to finish out the month before the "January Effect". I think that most of these events have the opportunity to be bullish, but I am not willing to bet big on this. Hence, I have hedged a lot of my portfolio.

So far it is working, but mileage may vary.

Tomorrow - my thoughts about the Dollar and Foreign Equities Markets.