Those in cash look smartest at the moment. The market is too oversold to be short and the longs are ready to jump out of a window. This is painful. It is the point where my positions look really foolish.Time will tell. Nothing really to say about my positions today. I was crushed again today and the wounds are deep.
So let's look at the charts. We retested the low again on the correction and the support failed today. We are searching for that new low and the moment of truth is upon us. Why? Because we are coming up on major trend lines.
The S&P 500 (which I still believe is the chart to watch) is coming on support at 1430 as well as the major March trendline at about the same point. The market pulled up to this point, suggesting that some buy programs kicked in at this support area today. Hopefully the after hours retail news and HP earnings will jump start us in the morning, allowing the area to hold.
If not, then the 20-month average is just below 1410. This is where the March and August lows held. A repeat to that area (and a bounce) and we may recover really well into the end of the year. Without it, then we are heading to uncharted territory with a break of 1370 breaking a 5-year bull market. One more day like today and we are staring into the Big Bear's eyes.
The bulls have to rally. Without institutional money playing to win, then this market is toast.
Here is the S&P Daily. It is my focus.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p14473809506&a=116688257
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