Friday, October 19, 2007

Happy Anniversary!


I wonder if the fact that 20 years ago today when the DJI dropped 22% in one day (the largest one day percentage drop in history for the average) was weighing on traders minds today? I guess history has a habit of repeating itself, but then again, maybe not.

The big drop in 1987 was a disaster. Today's drop, on top of a bad week, seemed mostly controlled on manageable volume. The indexes fell back to some key support and the weak hands fled the field. This is healthy for a bigger run going forward, but unfortunately, it will now take a few weeks to work itself out.

Take a look at the Nasdaq Composite below. It closed right at resistance. I would have preferred 2750 (another resistance level), but the market did not display the level of fear we saw in August. It could still get as bad or worse, but I think that because we are in the earnings cycle, the number of daily events that could turn the indexes around may stop this from being a route.

My stocks, for the most part, held up really well until the last 45 minutes of the day. I ended up selling all my SIRO when it broke support and I added to PCP this afternoon. I also bought CYT after great earnings today (I will post separate on CYT over the weekend). Finally, I tried to daytrade TIE after it's S&P announcement, but the institutions had the stock bracketed, so I exited the position a couple of hours after I bought it with no damage done.

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