Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Anybody Know this Guy?

Anybody know this guy? If you don't, then I would definitely recommend the book. It is the story about Harold Simmons, the Chairman of Contran, VHI, Kronos, NL, TIE and a few others and it tells you a lot about the man who is now worth $7.4 billion, became the richest man in Dallas, and is climbing up the Forbes list.

I follow him and his company, Titanium Metals (TIE) and it is a stock that has made me a lot of money over the last two years. However, there is one problem. I currently own puts with this stock? Why? Because I think they will miss Q3 earnings.

Harold Simmons is in it for the long term and his track record is excellent. I am currently betting against him, but only for a few more days. I am trying to take advantage of a short term issue with titanium tonnage (amount produced) that may move the stock down this month, but mean little for TIE and Harold Simmons in the long run.

Since I bought these puts, I have endured an announcement of TIE's admittance into the S&P, an announcement of TIE's partnership with CRS, and RTI 's earnings beat tonight and I still think that I will be up in trading profits in the morning.

Today's move down is a pre-Fed move to square positions, but I also think that the market is not as positive on the sector as they were a month ago.

When everyone is really fed up, Harold Simmons and I may be the only longs, but for now, I need a little short term negativity to succesfully close out the trade.

I was up fairly big in my portfolio today in a down tape day largely because of my "short" with TIE.

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